Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. Expect a global recession, continuing asset price declines, and waves of defaults, writes cjoye. . 6%mom) prices led the increase. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. 76% from 0. . Retweets. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney is off 10. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. 11. 2 days ago. In this conversation. christopher joye on Twitter. Sydney (+1. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. Aug 16. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. See new Tweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. . Immigration is still big in Aus. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 1. May 2. Interesting. . Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. No wonder RBA is slowing down. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. . Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. There was only one way to go. christopher joye. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. 5% pa, or 2. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. Log in. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". christopher joye @cjoye. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. @cjoye. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Even with yields down. Log in. Log in. . 3. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. @cjoye @PodcastFear. 1 million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. 2m are customer assets. 7%; Brisb off 1. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. Log in. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. christopher joye on Twitter. 7%. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. this conversation. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. 1. 5%. Sign upIn this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Embarrassingly wrong. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. “Why is Bitcoin back down at US$22k?”“@cjoye You should dissect Aus equities vs S&P500. “RBA may be told to hold press conferences; Barrenjoey talk queried would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. new Tweets. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. ”christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . afr. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We reap what we sow. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. @cjoye. This will. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. 0% (0. . “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. 9. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. macrobusiness. 3. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. ly/3pmX9Dk. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%, the…. Like. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. . *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. com. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. 1%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. 85% to 4. afr. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. Sign upLog in. . See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. Jerome Nugent-Smith. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. estimates will revise down a bit. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. 92. Replying to. Replying to . "It's global cyber war out there". You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”Log in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. First time I've properly suited up in a long while. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. afr. 1. Since first RBA May hike, Syd/national market has fallen at 23%/14% annualised pace. Some areas down -25. Sitting on $6. Melb also up: 67. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. ALT. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. . “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. 2m are customer assets. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. 3. and @Johnkehoe23. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Conversation“@cjoye who would have thought lending money to a government with a printing press that practically can't default would result in potentially the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history 😄”In this conversation. CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. . Sign upIn this conversation. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. A 30year investment for most. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. Replying to . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. 4% pa return. 65% in November. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. @cjoye · Aug 5. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. 3%. christopher joye on Twitter. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. 85% to 4. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. Log in. Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Sir. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. 4%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. “Good morning!”In this conversation. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. Sign upLog in. . com. Aug 16. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. However, the. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. @cjoye. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. @cjoye yep, thats the point. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It's very unstable at the street level. Replying to. . Discerning Coins for example is a new way of collecting coins - using the blockchain! Chris, we've talked about this. @cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. . Well done. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. . ConversationSee new Tweets. 4% this time last yr. . First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Quote Tweet. 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. @TheKouk · Jul 8. Stock up 18%. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. I am not a house price bull. The Australian Financial. This is 70s. 7%. Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. Retweets. We await policy details to review our outlook". “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. I believe this includes offset accounts. christopher joye on Twitter. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. Sign upSee new Tweets. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. . In this conversation. macrobusiness. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. com. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. @cjoye. Likes. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. christopher joye on Twitter: "A property I heard about was. 0%), Melbourne (-7. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up.